Barack Obama maintains a slim lead over John McCain in the first polling conducted, at least in part, following the Republican convention.
Gallup's daily tracking poll reported today that Obama remains ahead of McCain, 47 percent to 45 percent, a statistical tie. In the last polling prior to the Republican convention, Obama was ahead, 49 percent to 43 percent. If that number holds, it would mark a historically underachieving 2-point bump for McCain — well below Obama's 5-point improvement, which was in line with the 5 to 6-point average post-convention surge in support since 1964.
Today’s report, a three-day average of surveys, includes polling conducted prior to the conclusion of the GOP convention, so McCain's bump may yet bulge.
After the GOP convention began last week amid a hurricane striking the Gulf Coast and news of the pregnancy of Sarah’s Palin’s teenage daughter, Obama reached the 50 percent support threshold for the first time last Tuesday, while McCain's support fell to 42 percent.
That day marked the peak of Obama's 5-point convention bounce.
Rasmussen’s daily tracking poll reported today that when "leaners” are included, Obama is ahead of McCain 49 percent to 46 percent — just half the size of the Democrat's lead last week.
Gallup’s polling throughout June and July pegged Obama ahead of McCain by an average of 3 points. In the week leading up to the Democratic convention, the race tightened and McCain and Obama were tied at 45 percent support in the last survey before the Democratic convention.
Obama’s 5-point bounce exceeded that of John F. Kerry in 2004, but lagged Al Gore’s in 2000 and was just one-third of Bill Clinton’s in 1992 (Clinton's improvement, though, was in large part a result of Ross Perot announcing he would exit the race and offering the Democrat a quasi-endorsement) .
George W. Bush received an 8-point bounce in the polls following the 2000 GOP convention, as did Ronald Reagan in 1980. George H.W. Bush gained 6 points in 1988.
To match Obama's post-convention gains, McCain would have to soar to 47 or 48 points of support next week, a level of support he has not reached since early May, and has yet to reach since the general election began in early June. McCain took his only lead of the race in August, when he briefly gained a 46 percent to 44 percent advantage.
Throughout the summer, Obama has seemed to hit a fairly low ceiling despite the matrix of factors favoring a generic Democratic ticket — from eight in ten voters believing the nation is on the wrong track to President Bush's historically abysmal approval rating to Democrats' newfound advantage in party identification.
Next weeks' polling may answer the question of whether or not McCain has his own ceiling in public opinion polling — and also the extent to which a McCain-Palin ticket can outperform the struggling Republican brand.
| 
| 246 : vote(s) so far
| Cast your vote: